Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised.
Don’t be surprised if … Patrick Mahomes becomes droppable
It seems incomprehensible that one of the best quarterbacks of this generation — a six-time Pro Bowler, three-time Super Bowl winner and two-time MVP still in his prime — can be leading the NFL’s lone unbeaten team but also be one of fantasy’s signature disappointments this season. Mahomes enters Week 8 against the terrible Las Vegas Raiders ranked 22nd among QBs in ESPN fantasy points and averaging only 13.8 points per game, 24th in the league. This is quite a fall from last season, when most ignored his statistical underachieving because he still finished as a top-10 fantasy QB for the sixth consecutive season. Mahomes is not remotely on that path this season.
For perspective, the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ Trevor Lawrence, Denver Broncos‘ Bo Nix, New Orleans Saints‘ Derek Carr and New England Patriots rookie Drake Maye all average the strikingly low fantasy bar of at least 14 PPR points per game, and they are not the least bit popular in ESPN standard leagues. Mahomes averaged 17.5 last season, though the big games came in the first two months. This season he is leading the run-oriented, defensive-minded Kansas City Chiefs to wins, but not your fantasy team.
Still, the No. 3 QB from ESPN preseason average live drafts remains rostered in 96.7% of ESPN leagues, fifth among quarterbacks. He was active in roughly 46% of leagues for Week 7 (12th among QBs). The numbers do not warrant this much attention. If just about any other QB was sputtering along like this statistically, fantasy managers would not only find a better starter, but simply move on. Have we reached this point?
With the Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers up next, perhaps not, but Week 10 versus the Broncos seems quite challenging. Mahomes may not even be a matchup option anymore. He last scored 20 PPR points or delivered a top-10 QB fantasy outing during Thanksgiving weekend last season, also against the Raiders, 12 regular-season games ago. Overall, he has fewer than 20 PPG in 17 of 19 his past contests. His individual performance since then is surely incongruent with reputation and team performance. Coach Andy Reid doesn’t care. The Chiefs may win another Super Bowl. Mahomes is completing passes at a career-best 67.9%, but he also boasts eight interceptions against only six touchdown passes. Nobody has more interceptions. Man, this is surreal.
Put simply, Mahomes lacks strong, healthy wide receivers to target, and defenses have kept TE Travis Kelce (four catches, 17 yards versus the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday) well-covered and without a touchdown reception (he caught 32 touchdown passes from 2020 to ’22 and five last season). Mahomes, without a touchdown pass since Week 4, is just trying to move the offense, and RB Kareem Hunt is doing that. Mahomes rushed for a touchdown Sunday — separately also registering a stunning, career-long 33-yard jaunt — and that aided fantasy managers, too, but 12.06 PPR points (his lowest total of the season) is not enough.
Mahomes has not scored more than 16.38 PPR points in a game this season. Lamar Jackson has not scored fewer than 16.38 in a game.
Week 8 may be the ultimate tipping point for whether Mahomes even belongs on fantasy rosters anymore. If he can’t dominate the Raiders, what is left? Mahomes remains nearly universally rostered, but roughly half of those teams kept him on the bench for the road game against the 49ers. That seemed wise. The Raiders permit 16.3 PPR points to quarterbacks per game this season, 12th most in the league. If Mahomes cannot — or does not, to be clearer — pile on fantasy points this weekend, fantasy managers should drop Mahomes for one of the top 10 QB performers (Seattle Seahawks‘ Geno Smith, Detroit Lions‘ Jared Goff) or one of the upside rookies (Nix, Maye). We hate to disparage a Hall of Famer, but it may be the correct move.
Don’t be surprised if … Amari Cooper outscores Davante Adams going forward
These two well-traveled veteran wide receivers with 11 Pro Bowls between them were traded to AFC East “contenders” entering Week 7. Everyone seemed to focus on Adams going from the Raiders to the sub-.500 New York Jets, because he would reunite with old Green Bay Packers buddy Aaron Rodgers and reinvent that ordinary offense. Forget that the Jets need other things than another wide receiver. Rodgers and Adams are together again! On Sunday night, Adams saw nine targets (yay!) but caught only three of them for 30 yards. The Pittsburgh Steelers defend well, but most assumed, and still do, that it would take a little time for this dandy duo to dominate again.
Few seemed to initially view the Cooper trade as quite as significant, and we shouldn’t overrate his one outing, but this seems to be a better, more meaningful fit for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills needed a No. 1 WR. Now they have one. Cooper caught four of his five targets for 66 yards and a 12-yard touchdown. Cooper may not be as awesome as Adams or share the same production in recent seasons, but that may not matter in fantasy moving forward. Cooper’s situation is a positive one because Allen was desperate for someone like him: a strong, efficient route runner. Cooper outscored Adams in Week 7. Don’t be surprised if he keeps doing so.
Meanwhile, Allen completed six passes of at least 20 yards, his most in a game this season, and averaged 9.8 yards per attempt, his best mark since Week 1. Allen has still been a bit all-or-nothing for fantasy this season, and it is becoming obvious he is not going to approach last season’s rushing touchdown record of 15, but he can remain a top-three QB, especially if he continues onward with nary an interception on his ledger. Some of that is luck, but still, the addition of Cooper certainly helps, and Allen investors should feel better about the Buffalo offense.
Don’t be surprised if … the Browns score 30 points in a game
Thirty points is nothing, right? To the Browns, it is something, since they have yet to even reach 20 points in any game this season. Every other NFL team as well as every major college football team has scored more than 20 points in a game this season. The lowly Jaguars scored 22 points in the second quarter of Sunday’s win over the Patriots in London. Three major league baseball teams (Dodgers, Rockies, Athletics) even scored 20 runs in a game this year. The Browns really are special in 2024.
Everything changes this week against the Baltimore Ravens. Be scared, Ravens! OK, perhaps not, but that is how poorly QB Deshaun Watson played this season. The ESPN Fantasy crew has analyzed his performance myriad times, but now that he is out for the rest of the season, things should improve. How much they improve depends on who plays QB. If it is Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who gives off a bit of Jacoby Brissett vibes but remains young enough to warrant a longer look, then perhaps little changes. It may be Jameis Winston. The first pick in the 2015 draft, who threw for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns (and 30 interceptions) for the 2019 Saints, is 30 now and presumably eager to perform. Regardless, the new QB is an upgrade, though the schedule is far from appealing.
The other reason for optimism is the return of RB Nick Chubb last week. Only three teams average fewer rushing yards per game than Cleveland (Cowboys, Jets, Raiders), but Chubb will change that right away. The Browns average the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (Tennessee Titans, Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers), but if Winston plays, that goes way up, too. Winston has the arm and experience to matter, though do not assume he is a top-20 fantasy QB. He should aid Chubb with his potential to throw downfield. He should help TE David Njoku and WRs Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, the latter benefiting from the Cooper trade.
The Browns don’t have to be the Ravens or Lions for fantasy managers. Just be middle of the pack with Winston and Chubb playing. They can do that, starting this week against the Ravens, who permit the third-most PPR points to QBs, even if much of that comes after they let up with big leads.