Betting tips for ‘Thursday Night Football’: Commanders at Eagles

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First place in the NFC East will be on the line when the Washington Commanders (7-3) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video).

It appears to be a two-team race in the division, with Philadelphia the favorite at -225 and Washington +185 at ESPN BET.

Both teams boast MVP candidates at quarterback, with Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels having 13-1 odds (tops among NFC players) to take home the award.

The Commanders are coming off their first home loss of the season, a 28-27 nail-biter against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, the Eagles are riding a five-game winning streak and just throttled the Dallas Cowboys 34-6 last Sunday.

The NFC East rivals will meet again in Week 16.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET 

Game lines

Spread: Eagles -3.5 (Opened Eagles -3.5)
Moneyline: Eagles -195, Commanders +165
Over/Under: 48.5 (Opened 49.5)

First-half spread: Eagles -2.5 (-125), Commanders +2.5 (+105)
Eagles total points: 26.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Commanders total points: 21.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

The props

Passing

Jalen Hurts total passing yards: 274.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Hurts total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -155)
Jayden Daniels total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Daniels total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -155)

Rushing

Saquon Barkley total rushing yards: 89.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Hurts total rushing yards: 39.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
<!–Austin Ekeler total rushing yards: 
Daniels total rushing yards:–>

Receiving

A.J. Brown total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Terry McLaurin total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
DeVonta Smith total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Noah Brown total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Zach Ertz total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Dallas Goedert total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Barkley total receiving yards: 14.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Tyler Fulghum’s pick: Commanders +3.5

This line opened at Eagles -3.5 and seemed more likely to move to -3 (which it did) than -4. That’s why I got in on the Commanders at +3.5 when I could. Even though Washington lost to the Steelers in Week 10, that was a coin-flip game that the Commanders easily could have won. If they had, we wouldn’t have had this number posted in the market.

Nick Sirianni and the Eagles are coming off a dominant win in Dallas, but that should be excused by the poor state of the Cowboys more than anything. I trust Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn to keep this game close. Washington is live on the money line, as well. The Commanders can win this game outright. It should be a good one.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information

  • The Commanders are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games (did not cover last week). They are 4-1 ATS on the road this season with four straight covers.
  • All five Commanders road games have gone over the total this season.
  • The Eagles are 11-4 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Nick Sirianni, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 and 7-1 ATS since 2022. The Commanders are 5-1 ATS in that spot since 2023.
  • The Commanders have covered three straight games as an underdog.
  • The Eagles are 0-3 ATS in their last three home games.
  • The Commanders have covered three straight meetings, with all three games going over the total.
  • The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in the first quarter this season.
  • The Commanders have gone over their team total in eight of 10 games.

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