Betting buzz: Browns gain steam from sharp bettors after QB change

Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation. 

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page ESPN BET 

Browns gaining steam from sharp bettors amid QB change

Doug Greenberg: Under the subpar play of QB Deshaun Watson — who posted the fourth-worst total QBR over the last three seasons (34.3), according to ESPN Research — the Cleveland Browns have stumbled to a 1-6 straight up record and are 2-5 against the spread to start the year. That said, sharp bettors across the sports betting market believe Week 8 is where things may start to turn around for the Browns, especially with a new quarterback under center.

Cleveland opened as high as 10.5-point underdogs against the division rival Baltimore Ravens, who are now in first place in the AFC North after winning five in a row. But early sharp action pushed this line quickly down to Browns +9.5 and some shops have even come down to +8.5, including DraftKings.

“We have seen sharp money come in on Cleveland early in the week,” the sportsbook’s director Johnny Avello told ESPN over email. “This is a big number for a divisional game. Additionally, there is a belief that Jameis Winston might be able to jolt some life into this offense, after Deshaun Watson struggled mightily over the first seven games.”

BetMGM also attributes “sharp action” to the precipitous shortening of this spread.

At ESPN BET, the Browns are down to +9 after the book received 75% of handle against just 32% of tickets on Cleveland. The book also notes a two-point move for the total up to 44.5, another possible indication of Winston’s potential contributions to the Browns’ offense.

Oct. 22: Inter Miami top MLS Cup odds entering playoffs

Doug Greenberg: On the eve of the 2024 MLS season, Inter Miami CF, led by former Barcelona superstars Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets, were the clear-cut favorites to win the club’s first MLS Cup and had plenty of support from the betting public to do so. On the eve of the league’s playoffs, not much has changed.

Inter Miami enter the MLS Cup playoffs as +150 favorites to win it all after beginning the season at +300, per ESPN BET odds. Miami has been the bona fide public favorite all season, attracting 44% of the wagers and 39% of handle at the sportsbook.

However, Inter Miami’s favorite status has mostly mitigated the risk for sportsbooks, who are more wary of the longer-odds teams with bettor support.

“Despite having a high ticket count, Messi and Inter Miami’s odds being short all season have actually made them a good outcome for us if they win the cup,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said over email. “The Columbus Crew going back-to-back would be the worst-case scenario for us.”

Columbus, runners-up to Miami in the Eastern Conference, sit at +700 on BetMGM and have attracted 18.1% of the tickets and 16.3% of the money there, second and third, respectively, in the split rankings. Los Angeles FC (+600) are also a big liability for the book, attracting 21.4% of the handle, actually ahead of Inter Miami.

The playoffs kick off with wild-card matches Tuesday and Wednesday; CF Montréal (-125) and Portland Timbers (-175) are the favorites to advance in their respective matches.

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