Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … Jayden Daniels falls from QB1 status this season
Coming off a 8.58 PPR-point performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, investors in Daniels don’t want to acknowledge that the great Washington Commanders rookie simply hasn’t been the same, awesome fantasy option he started out as for more than a month now. Daniels suffered a notable rib injury in Week 7, but perhaps his fantasy value had already begun to decline one week prior to that.
His full-season numbers are a bit deceptive. Over the first five games this season, Daniels was one of the best stories in the NFL with four top-10 QB fantasy finishes. He got there by relying on his rushing numbers: 300 rushing yards (or 60 per game) and he scored four rushing touchdowns.
However, starting with Week 6 against the Baltimore Ravens and including the Week 7 game with the awful Carolina Panthers when he left early with the rib injury (but not before rushing for 50 yards), Daniels has rushed for 164 yards, or only 32 yards per game, with nary a touchdown (Austin Ekeler investors love it).
The Steelers “held” Daniels to five rushing yards Sunday, but then again, the Commanders have modified their offense with the goal of keeping their QB healthy. They aren’t calling QB runs, and Daniels didn’t become a top fantasy option because of his throwing prowess. In fact, after completing 77% of his passes through five weeks, he’s at barely 60% since then (which combines for 68.7% on the season).
Perhaps the Commanders are waiting for their QB star to heal up before re-unleashing him on defenses. Perhaps they will let him run wild on the NFC East-rival Philadelphia Eagles this Thursday night. It could happen. More likely, though, is that the Commanders continue to play it safe with their rookie find. Daniels is terrific, but many worried about his slender frame’s ability to stay healthy during his Heisman trophy winning season at LSU. Even a month ago, his terrific start seemed to be a tad unsustainable.
Daniels boasts only nine passing touchdowns through 10 games. One of those was the incredibly fortunate Week 8 Hail Mary — apologies to fans of the Chicago Bears for bringing this up — which he didn’t really deserve. Sure, all the passing touchdowns count, but Daniels isn’t a fantasy star for the passing numbers. He needs to run more than he has recently to remain a strong QB1 option, and this Thursday against Philadelphia will be telling.
Don’t be surprised if … the king of RBs in New York (er, New Jersey) is a Giant
New York Giants rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. barely played over the first four games of this season, as his dysfunctional team thought that veteran Devin Singletary was a better option. To be fair, Singletary hardly struggled in September, scoring 14.5 PPR points in Week 2 against the Commanders before adding 18.8 PPR points the following week against the Cleveland Browns. Then Singletary, 27, suffered a groin injury and Tracy, an intriguing fifth-round pick from Purdue, got his chance.
Over the last six games, Tracy has rushed for more than 100 yards three times. He has scored three touchdowns, resulting in a total of 89.2 PPR points, or 14.8 per game. Tracy hasn’t been perfect, as he showed on his final play of Sunday’s game in Germany when he fumbled the football — a mistake that directly led to the team’s overtime loss to the Panthers. Still, he is among the most-added fantasy players for good reason. Tracy sure looks like a RB2 option the rest of the season.
Meanwhile, the other New Jersey team is losing nearly as much as the Giants, but the New York Jets had far greater expectations given their future Hall of Fame QB, a supposedly signature defense, and RB Breece Hall, who was chosen by fantasy managers in the first round of most leagues. Hall finished last season (despite the mess around him) as fantasy’s No. 2 RB, behind only the exalted Christian McCaffrey. He caught 76 passes. No running back had more.
Well, Tracy has outscored Hall in PPR formats over the past six games, and there is little reason to expect things to change over the final two months. Both New York offenses are quite a mess, but at least the Giants have committed to Tracy. When they return from the bye week for Week 12, Tracy gets to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. Tracy should aid fantasy managers to qualify for their playoffs, and then aid them in December as well.
Hall is still a terrific player and remains PPR scoring’s RB7 for the season, but he has averaged under 11 PPR points for the last three games. Don’t blame Hall. He has averaged 5.1 yards per rush over that span, but the biggest part of his value last season (and early this season) was his reception total. He can’t throw the football to himself, and beleaguered QB Aaron Rodgers has targeted Hall only 11 times (7 receptions) over the past three weeks. Hall has just one touchdown since Week 3. None of this means that fantasy managers should drop Hall, of course, but perhaps you should think twice before trading preseason value for him — or any other Jets, for that matter.
Tracy still must deal with the mess around him, too, and perhaps there will be a QB change for the G-Men. That may not matter. Volume, on the other hand, does matter. Tracy is seeing more of it, and perhaps the Giants start including him more in the passing game. Tracy is a converted wide receiver, after all. The Giants know that. Well, who knows.
Don’t be surprised if … Trey Lance matters in fantasy
Lance, the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL draft, has not had much of a professional career and it remains quite possible he may never have a relevant one for fantasy purposes (or in real life, for that matter). From No. 3 overall to the No. 3 QB for the Cowboys, he played on 14 snaps in Sunday’s blowout loss to the Eagles. Few can pretend that the brief outing told us much. Lance threw six passes. One deep pass was picked off, although it wasn’t his fault. He was credited for three rushing attempts. He scored 0.54 PPR points. So, why are we talking about Trey Lance?
Well, the Cowboys have decided that veteran Cooper Rush will start the Monday night home game in Week 11 against the Houston Texans, as Dak Prescott (hamstring) is officially lost for the season. Rush, on 42 snaps in Week 10 against the Eagles, playing at home and with the sun controversially bearing down, actually cost the few fantasy managers that relied on him two points. That’s right. Prescott, you and even me — we all outscored Rush. Rush is 30 years old. His 13 completed passes amounted to 45 yards. Now, Rush shouldn’t handle all the blame from Sunday’s loss as there is a mess surrounding him both on and off the field, but he is not the future at QB for this or any NFL team.
Lance, blessed with an intriguing combination of size, speed and running ability was, once upon a time, the future for the excited San Francisco 49ers and many eager fantasy managers as well. Things did not quite work out in San Francisco, and Lance took nary a snap in an NFL game for Dallas last season, after they spent a relevant draft pick to acquire him. The reason why we must pay attention to Lance, should he get a chance to play, if because of his innate running ability.
This is the reason everyone overreacted to Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts this season, so yeah, it doesn’t always work out. It is why Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos (who, it bears notice, is a few months older than Lance) may end up as a top-10 fantasy QB this season. Running quarterbacks often make up for passing deficiencies in fantasy.
We don’t know if Lance can be an effective fantasy QB and perhaps the desperate and embarrassed Cowboys have no idea either, but one would think at some point soon they will aim to find out. Fantasy managers should consider Lance in deeper superflex leagues because, even in the dysfunction that is Dallas, things may work out nicely.