Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 8, which kicks off Thursday with the Vikings at the Rams.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Jump to:
MIN-LAR | BAL-CLE | TEN-DET | IND-HOU | GB-JAX | ARI-MIA | NYJ-NE | ATL-TB
PHI-CIN | NO-LAC | BUF-SEA | CHI-WAS | CAR-DEN | KC-LV | DAL-SF | NYG-PIT
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
Projected Score: Vikings 23, Rams 18
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Kyren Williams, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp
Jordan Addison has appeared in four games this season but has only one double-digit fantasy outing. He has been targeted exactly four times in three separate games and his only game with more than four was an 8-target, 36-yard effort. Addison has struggled to generate a consistently high target share since entering the league and remains a “touchdown or bust” flex. He’s a shaky play this week against a Rams defense that has been substantially better against wide receivers since restructuring its secondary a few weeks ago. The last receiver to produce 14 fantasy points against the Rams was Jauan Jennings in Week 3.
Over/Under: 40.1 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 67% (10th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Score: Eagles 24, Bengals 24
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith
Smith is eyeing a rebound following a rough Week 7, in which he was held to minus-2 yards on his lone reception. He was targeted twice after managing only four in Week 6. The dip in usage aligns with Brown’s return from injury, but it’s also a product of the Eagles leaning more heavily on the run this season, especially near the goal line. Despite the dip, there’s little reason for panic here. Smith has 14-plus fantasy points in four of his five games and was a top-20 fantasy WR in both of the last two seasons. He’s best viewed as a WR3 play this week.
Over/Under: 48 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 53% (16th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Projected Score: Ravens 28, Browns 17
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, David Njoku
Nick Chubb made his 2024 debut in Week 7 and played on 27 (35%) of Cleveland’s offensive snaps. Chubb found the end zone on one of his 11 carries and was targeted three times, though he was limited to just 32 yards on 12 touches. Pierre Strong Jr. (three carries and three targets on 39 snaps) and D’Onta Foreman (two carries on 10 snaps) were also involved and, though Chubb’s role figures to increase a bit in his second game back, some combination of Strong, Foreman and Jerome Ford will remain a factor in Week 8. Especially against an elite Ravens’ run defense that has allowed a league-low 3.1 yards per carry, Chubb is best viewed as a flex option.
Mark Andrews found the end zone twice on Monday and now has three scores over his past two games. Despite the recent success, not much has changed here. Andrews played on 54% of snaps on Monday, which aligns exactly with his 54% share for the season. Andrews has yet to clear five targets in any game, which is a huge step down from his 7.2 per-game average during the last five seasons. Andrews sits outside the top-20 tight ends in snaps, routes, targets and receptions, so until his usage increases, he’ll remain a midrange TE2. That’s especially the case this week against a Cleveland defense that has yet to allow any tight end to reach 11 fantasy points in a game.
Over/Under: 45.5 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 86% (3rd highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
Projected Score: Lions 29, Titans 15
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff has reeled off three consecutive games with 18-plus fantasy points, but he remains a poor starting option. The veteran QB is living on unsustainable efficiency (13.0 YPA, 7 TD, 0 INT during this stretch), which is a far cry from his 6.8 YPA, 3 TD and 4 INT from Weeks 1-3. Goff remains a nonfactor as a rusher (17 yards), which is why his big passing numbers won’t lead to consistent fantasy success. We saw this in 2023 when he finished 15th in fantasy PPG despite throwing for 4,575 yards and 30 TD (both top seven). Goff, who has never finished any season better than 10th in fantasy PPG, is no more than a QB2 against a Titans defense that has allowed 6.3 YPA (third lowest) and a 60% completion rate (fourth lowest) this season.
Over/Under: 44.5 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 92% (Highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins
Projected Score: Dolphins 25, Cardinals 22
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, James Conner, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is expected back this week and, though he’s generally not a quality a starting option in fantasy, he is a streaming option against an Arizona defense that has allowed the fifth-most QB fantasy points, the highest YPA (8.3) and the second-highest completion rate (71%) this season. Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards and a score in Week 1, which was his only full game this season. His return also increases the fantasy value of the team’s offensive skill position players, which is why Achane, Hill and Waddle are all listed as lineup locks. All three produced 16-plus fantasy points in Miami’s Week 1 victory.
Over/Under: 46.9 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 62% (12th highest)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Projected Score: Jets 23, Patriots 18
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson
Hunter Henry is back on the fantasy radar after producing a total of 30.3 fantasy points during Drake Maye‘s two starts. Henry posted a 3-41-1 receiving line on five targets in Week 6 before managing a 8-92-0 line on nine targets in Week 7. The recent success is enough to vault Henry into the streaming conversation, but we shouldn’t get too carried away just yet. Henry has put up 16-plus fantasy points in six different games since the start of 2023, but has fallen short of six points 12 other times, four of which have come this season. He’s facing a tougher matchup this week, as the Jets have yet to allow any tight end to reach 12 fantasy points in a game this season.
Over/Under: 40.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Jets 69% (9th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Score: Buccaneers 26, Falcons 24
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney
Kirk Cousins lit up the Buccaneers for 509 yards and four touchdowns when these teams met in Week 5, but he’s still a risky fantasy starter. The veteran QB has stumbled in recent “plus matchups” and has now fallen short of 13 fantasy points in five out of seven games this season — and all five finishes were QB20 or worse. The Buccaneers have struggled against quarterbacks (second-most fantasy points allowed), though they’ve faced a ton of volume (fourth-most passing attempts and third-most QB rushes faced). Cousins, who has negative-8 rushing yards this season, is fine to stream this week, but he’s not a lineup lock.
Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) both went down in Week 7 and neither will be available against the Falcons. Next up on the depth chart are Trey Palmer (73% of snaps last week), Jalen McMillan (60%) and Sterling Shepard (45%). McMillan (a third-round rookie) has run ahead of Palmer and Shepard throughout most of this season, though he has been limited to a 6-74-1 receiving line on 15 targets. He’s your best deep-league flex option, but this is a situation best avoided.
Over/Under: 50.4 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 58% (15th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Score: Packers 26, Jaguars 22
Lineup locks: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, Tucker Kraft
With Travis Etienne Jr. sidelined last week, Tank Bigsby (26 carries and one target on 39 snaps) led the Jacksonville backfield, with D’Ernest Johnson (nine carries and four targets on 20 snaps) also involved. Bigsby obviously dominated the carries, which helped him to 118 yards and two scores, but he remained a minimal contributor in the passing game (just seven routes). He has seen only two targets on the season, which is the fewest among all tailbacks who have played at least 100 snaps. Bigsby continues to run the ball well, though, as his 6.2 YPC ranks second and his 3.7 YAC first among RBs with 50-plus carries. However, he should be in lineups this week only if Etienne remains out.
Over/Under: 47.7 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 64% (11th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Projected Score: Texans 23, Colts 20
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell
Josh Downs and Anthony Richardson have played four full games together since entering the league last season. Downs’ receiving lines in those games are as follows: 7-3-30-0, 3-2-34-0, 5-3-22-0 and, most recently, 3-1-3-0. He’s averaging 4.5 fantasy PPG in those four outings, which is a far cry from the 19.2 PPG he’s posted with Joe Flacco under center this season. Downs can’t be trusted in lineups.
Over/Under: 42.3 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 60% (14th highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers
Projected Score: Chargers 24, Saints 15
Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara
With Rashid Shaheed (IR) and Chris Olave sidelined last week, the Saints’ WR usage was as follows: Bub Means (58 snaps, 5 targets), Mason Tipton (54, 9), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (46, 7) and Equanimeous St. Brown (1, 0). A garbage time score helped Wilson to a respectable 6-57-1 receiving line, but no other receiver cleared 45 yards or found the end zone. Spencer Rattler has struggled (5.5 YPA), so barring a surprise return by Derek Carr this week, only Olave (should he clear the league’s concussion protocol) can be considered a viable WR3/flex option. That’s especially the case against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fewest receptions and third-fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Over/Under: 38.5 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 80% (6th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks
Projected Score: Bills 27, Seahawks 24
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Kenneth Walker III, James Cook, Amari Cooper, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Dalton Kincaid
DK Metcalf (knee) is expected to miss this game, which vaults Smith-Njigba and Lockett into “lineup lock” status. The Seattle offense ranks first in passing attempts (by 16), completions (by 26) and passing yards (by 161) this season, which, with Metcalf’s 8.7 targets per game eliminated, opens the door for “JSN”, Lockett and perhaps even Jake Bobo to produce at a high level. Smith-Njigba leads all receivers in routes and sits ninth in targets and receptions, whereas Lockett has at least four receptions in five consecutive games. The duo will be even busier in Week 8 and should absolutely be in lineups, even against a solid Bills’ pass defense.
Over/Under: 50.4 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 61% (13th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos
Projected Score: Broncos 24, Panthers 12
Lineup locks: None
The Panthers’ defense is worst in the league, having allowed the highest EPA, the fourth-most QB fantasy points and the most RB fantasy points. This is obviously a great matchup for the Denver offense, which is most notable for Bo Nix and Javonte Williams. Nix has been better as of late, producing 19-plus fantasy points in three of his past five games. He failed to score a touchdown in Week 7, but made up for that a bit with 75 yards on the ground and now ranks fourth among QBs in rushing yards (255) and rushing scores (3). Williams, meanwhile, has been all over the map this season (two games with 16-plus points and three with fewer than 6.5), but he’s fresh off a 2-TD, 26.1-point effort versus the Saints (his most points in any game since Week 13 of 2021). Williams has had 16-plus touches and 80-plus yards in three of his last four games and is on the RB2 radar this week.
Over/Under: 35.8 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 86% (2nd highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Projected Score: Chiefs 23, Raiders 13
Lineup locks: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers
JuJu Smith-Schuster went down due to a hamstring injury on his seventh snap on Sunday and he’ll miss this week’s game. With him sidelined, Justin Watson (48 snaps, 1 target), Xavier Worthy (41, 8), Skyy Moore (32, 1) and Mecole Hardman (20, 2) handled the WR work. The foursome combined for just 19.7 fantasy points, with the only TD coming on a Hardman rush. Worthy’s career-high eight targets is notable, but he turned them into only 19 yards. In fact, he now has a grand total of 44 yards on 14 targets over the last two weeks. Worthy does have four touchdowns on the season and it’s hard to ignore the high number of targets in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. Still, the inefficiency, combined with the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins and this matchup against a Raiders defense that hasn’t allowed any receiver to clear 13.2 fantasy points since Week 3? He’s no more than a flex.
Over/Under: 36.3 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 83% (5th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
Projected Score: Commanders 22, Bears 21
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore
When we last saw him in Week 6, Caleb Williams was the top-scoring QB in fantasy. He has now produced 23-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. Despite the success, Williams is not yet a viable fantasy start. Consider that Chicago’s last three games have been against the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars — who rank 27th, 32nd and 31st (respectively) in defensive EPA. Washington’s defense isn’t substantially better (22nd), though it has improved against QBs as of late, holding Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson and Andy Dalton to a combined 18.4 points and limiting Lamar Jackson to 18.9 points (his second-lowest total this season). Williams is improving, but he remains a benchworthy QB2.
Over/Under: 43.7 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 72% (7th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
Projected Score: 49ers 26, Cowboys 21
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Jake Ferguson
Week 7 was rough on the 49ers’ receiver room, as Brandon Aiyuk went down with a season-ending knee injury, Samuel was sidelined for all but three snaps due to an illness and Jauan Jennings was out with a hip injury. The 49ers’ WR usage was otherwise as follows: Ricky Pearsall (44 snaps, 5 targets), Chris Conley (40, 2), Ronnie Bell (21, 2) and Jacob Cowing (11, 3). There are a lot of variables to sort out here, but Jennings and Pearsall are the names to know.
Jennings, who has a 175-yard, 3-TD game on his résumé this season, will immediately join the WR3 discussion if he’s back this week and he’ll jump into the WR2/lineup lock mix if Samuel is out. First-round rookie Pearsall should be on rosters, but will be a flex option only if either Samuel or Jennings are sidelined. Note that this is a Sunday night game, so if you’re considering any of these players, monitor all injury/illness news closely before setting the rest of your lineup on Sunday morning.
Over/Under: 46.8 (6th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 69% (8th highest)
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Score: Steelers 25, Giants 15
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Malik Nabers, George Pickens
Harris should in lineups this week after consecutive strong games in which he produced 16-plus touches, 100-plus yards and one TD. Harris has now handled 16-plus touches in every game this season and, while his 14-132-0 receiving line is concerning, he does rank fourth in carries and eighth in rushing yards. The Giants are only “middle of the road” against RBs. That said, they’ve allowed 5.3 yards per carry (second highest) on the season and were just crushed by Saquon Barkley to the tune of 26.7 fantasy points.
Over/Under: 40.5 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 84% (4th highest)